Validity of prognostic models of critical COVID-19 is variable. A systematic review with external validation.

OBJECTIVES: To identify prognostic models which estimate the risk of critical COVID-19 in hospitalized patients and to assess their validation properties. STUDY DESIGN AND SETTING: We conducted a systematic review in Medline (up to January 2021) of studies developing or updating a model that estimated the risk of critical COVID-19, defined as death, admission to intensive care unit, and/or use of mechanical ventilation during admission. Models were validated in two datasets with different backgrounds (HM [private Spanish hospital network], n = 1,753, and ICS [public Catalan health system], n = 1,104), by assessing discrimination (area under the curve [AUC]) and calibration (plots). RESULTS: We validated 18 prognostic models. Discrimination was good in nine of them (AUCs ≥ 80%) and higher in those predicting mortality (AUCs 65%-87%) than those predicting intensive care unit admission or a composite outcome (AUCs 53%-78%). Calibration was poor in all models providing outcome's probabilities and good in four models providing a point-based score. These four models used mortality as outcome and included age, oxygen saturation, and C-reactive protein among their predictors. CONCLUSION: The validity of models predicting critical COVID-19 by using only routinely collected predictors is variable. Four models showed good discrimination and calibration when externally validated and are recommended for their use.

Biomarker Profiles Associated with COVID-19 Severity and Mortality.

INTRODUCTION: The aim of this study was to analyze biomarkers that might predict the severity and progression of the SARS-CoV-2 infection, both in the acute phase and after recovery. METHODS: Unvaccinated patients infected with the original strain of COVID-19 requiring ward (Group 1, n = 48) or ICU (Group 2, n = 41) admission were included. At the time of admission (visit 1), a clinical history was acquired, and blood samples were obtained. One and six months after discharge from the hospital (visits 2 and 3, respectively), a clinical history, lung function tests, and blood samples were carried out. At visit 2, patients also underwent a chest CT scan. Different cytokines (IL-1ß, IL-2, IL-4, IL-5, IL-6, IL-7, IL-8, IL-10, IL-12p70, IL-13, IL-17A, G-CSF, GM-CSF, IFN-É£, MCP-1, MIP-1ß, and TNF-α) and lung fibrosis biomarkers (YKL-40 and KL-6) were measured in blood samples obtained at visits 1, 2, and 3. RESULTS: At visit 1, IL-4, IL-5, and IL-6 levels were higher in Group 2 (p = 0.039, 0.011, and 0.045, respectively), and IL-17 and IL-8 levels were higher in Group 1 (p = 0.026 and 0.001, respectively). The number of patients in Groups 1 and 2 who died during hospitalization was 8 and 11, respectively. YKL-40 and KL-6 levels were higher in patients who died. Serum YKL-40 and KL-6 levels determined at visit 2 correlated negatively with FVC (p = 0.022 and p = 0.024, respectively) and FEV1 (p = 0.012 and p = 0.032, respectively) measured at visit 3. KL-6 levels also correlated negatively with the diffusing capacity of the lungs for carbon monoxide (DLCO, p = 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: Patients who required ICU admission had higher levels of Th2 cytokines, while patients admitted to the ward showed an innate immune response activation, with IL-8 release and Th1/Th17 lymphocyte contribution. Increased levels of YKL-40 and KL-6 were associated with mortality in COVID-19 patients.

Lung Ultrasound as a First-Line Test in the Evaluation of Post-COVID-19 Pulmonary Sequelae.

Background: Interstitial lung sequelae are increasingly being reported in survivors of COVID-19 pneumonia. An early detection of these lesions may help prevent the development of irreversible lung fibrosis. Lung ultrasound (LUS) has shown high diagnostic accuracy in interstitial lung disease (ILD) and could likely be used as a first-line test for post-COVID-19 lung sequelae. Methods: Single-center observational prospective study. Follow-up assessments of consecutive patients hospitalized for COVID-19 pneumonia were conducted 2-5 months after the hospitalization. All patients underwent pulmonary function tests (PFTs), high-resolution computed tomography (HRCT), and LUS. Radiological alterations in HRCT were quantified using the Warrick score. The LUS score was obtained by evaluating the presence of pathological B-lines in 12 thoracic areas (range, 0-12). The correlation between the LUS and Warrick scores was analyzed. Results: Three hundred and fifty-two patients who recovered from COVID-19 pneumonia were recruited between July and September 2020. At follow-up, dyspnea was the most frequent symptom (69.3%). FVC and DLCO alterations were present in 79 (22.4%) and 234 (66.5%) patients, respectively. HRCT showed relevant interstitial lung sequelae (RILS) in 154 (43.8%) patients (Warrick score ≥ 7). The LUS score was strongly correlated with the HRCT Warrick score (r = 0.77) and showed a moderate inverse correlation with DLCO (r = -0.55). The ROC curve analysis revealed that a LUS score ≥ 3 indicated an excellent ability to discriminate patients with RILS (sensitivity, 94.2%; specificity, 81.8%; negative predictive value, 94.7%). Conclusions: LUS could be implemented as a first-line procedure in the evaluation of Post-COVID-19 interstitial lung sequelae. A normal LUS examination rules out the presence of these sequelae in COVID-19 survivors, avoiding the need for additional diagnostic tests such as HRCT.

Is asthma a risk factor for COVID-19? Are phenotypes important?

These results reaffirm the idea that asthma does not appear to be a risk factor for the development of #COVID19. However, most of the asthma patients in this study had a non-T2 phenotype. https://bit.ly/38hIp18.